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The world economy has been overwhelmed by the post-financial crisis era, and the Chinese furniture market has once again been squandered by the macro-control and the real estate downturn. When you see that the variety of promotional activities is still the door to the door, the first reaction in your mind must be - "do everything possible to save money." It was because of this that the first dominoes began to fall.
You will find that, suddenly, people have reduced the number of visits to the store, so the profitability of convenience stores in the corner has begun to drop sharply, and corporate layoffs have occurred frequently. As a result, people have tightened their money. The recession has almost become a self-fulfilling prophecy - we learned that the crisis broke out, and then reduced consumption; later more and more people began to reduce consumption; from the manufacturer to the retailer, everyone in the business chain was successively Dragging into a nightmare; eventually, the recession is getting worse.
Since last year, news of the withdrawal of major furniture store manufacturers has been overwhelming. "A certain red star Meikailong store in Beijing is experiencing the dilemma of enterprises withdrawing from the store", "some bathroom brand dealers have already withdrawn from a red star store", "Red Star Chongqing store" L2 bathroom brand agents 'go away', "Eurasian Baili overnight" clearing the nest", "the home of Hangzhou store closed"...
When we walked through Anqing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen, Kunming, Tianjin, and Xi'an, we truly felt the "ups and downs" of different urban situations.
40% vacancy rate and 3 days sales of 1.5 million
Today, first-tier cities seem to exist as war frontiers and negative textbooks.
Here, the giants are concentrated, and the smoke is filled with smoke, which is also the most severely affected by economic fluctuations. In the past few years, it can be said that the stores and dealers are in the game, and now even the "game" is not needed, and the dealers directly "escaped". The vacancy rate of Shenyang and Hangzhou stores has reached 20% to 40%. Red Star Macalline in three stores in Hangzhou, two of them in a semi-dead state, the vacancy rate is almost 30% -40%; the third store is unsatisfactory, the vacancy rate also reached 20%. It is more tragic to ask the Moon Star, who is the host of Wu Xiaoli to be the spokesperson, and the vacancy rate is at least 40%.
Red Star Macalline Tianjin Hexi Store, once brilliant, once made a sales of more than 1 billion in the first few days of a Golden Week, this store of only 50,000-60,000 square meters, but the performance is better than Shanghai 10 million square meters Rice's stores are even better, so its rents have remained high, averaging 280 yuan per square meter. Today, the door is cold, but there is still no trend of price cuts. In this "renewing period", some dealers have already withdrawn because "the group does not give policy", and the other part is still deadlocked. Some people predict that if the Hexi store does not cut prices, then the store situation will be "disastrous."
Some of the first-line positions of Red Star once caused many dealers to wait in line, even through the gray trade, but now they have been surrounded for a month or two. Whenever someone posts a message or photo about Weiwei on Weibo, it will immediately attract a lot of onlookers and comments. The word "resonance" is fully reflected.
Relative to the high price stalemate in first-tier cities, the pressure on cities below the second line is relatively small, and it can even be said that dealers live relatively moist. Regardless of the purchasing power of their city, at least the rental cost is lower, and the transaction price and gross profit margin are not much lower than the first-tier cities, and may even be higher. Xiamen, Kunming, Nanjing, these slightly second-tier cities, even if there is a small vacancy rate, but the store and most of the dealers are also said to be happy.
Of course, there are also special cases in second-tier cities, that is, when facing the "land snake" and "crossing the river". The most typical one is Xi'an. The local Daming Palace furniture store is a well-deserved “overlord.” In the planning of Daming Palace, the future will occupy a place in the east, west, and north of Xi’an, but when it plans its third store. The red star Macalline is here. then,
A war of wooing and anti-pushing, suppressing and counter-striking began. The most direct result is definitely not a store that has produced another store, but in the war between the store and the store, there are countless cannons. Cannon fob alias: dealer.
At this time, the third-tier cities still show their vitality in recent years. The dealers here can never understand the irreconcilable contradiction between the first-tier city colleagues and the stores.
Anqing City, Anhui Province, a brand of 3,000 square meters of large-scale stores opened at the beginning of this year, opening three days of sales of 1.5 million yuan, while the rent is only 60-70,000, three days to complete half a year of business. The third-tier cities continue to exist as the only source of this sorrow.
Adjusting the golden age of the layout
This year, the government is not concentrating on real estate control policies, and the industry outlook is foggy. Every time a city, local dealers have expressed a concern about the situation, continue to force or shrink? By the store and the factory forced, the dealer is difficult to do, then the factory is in trouble, and later the store is also difficult to be independent.
It can be said that the current is a very embarrassing period. The “tear-saw battle” between dealers, stores and manufacturers has risen and fallen, but some companies have keenly “sniffed” the warm air, thinking that it is now The "golden age" of layout and planning. The industry situation is certainly grim, but the healthy mall will not have big problems in at least 2-3 years, many unstoppable withdrawals, and some powerful enterprises have started a new round of gold layout. For companies with strong toughness and good reputation, the good position of the mall is easier to take than before, and there is no need to queue up for gray transactions, and even to occupy high-quality channels at a lower cost. Some people have made judgments. "This opportunity has not been long for us. It may be half a year to three quarters, at least until September is the gold layout and the real opportunity to snatch."
After the ups and downs of the Da Vinci home last year and other events, the supervision of the furniture industry is more stringent, which is a severe blow to the industry's disorderly, lack of standard management, imitation of the rampant and other ills. For those companies that regulate business operations, they have been concealed by many companies that have not regulated their operations. Now, this trouble has given them the opportunity to obtain the value recognition they deserve from the public. Some people like this image to "the elephant shakes the ants." On the other hand, the awakening of consumer awareness, the more demanding management of hypermarkets, and the government's emphasis on the furniture industry have changed the status of low social attention in the past. In such an environment, enterprises form a consensus within the internal, the production process problems do not need to be repeatedly emphasized, and it is easier to implement decisions; the advantages of external and standardized operations are more obvious.
Most corporate people believe that the first half of this year will be the most difficult period for the furniture industry. In fact, the consumption environment is not as horrible as rumors. Although the regulation of real estate will not be relaxed, local measures have been introduced one after another. The conditions for the purchase of second suites in Shanghai have been relaxed. Foshan and Zhongshan have also adopted various “loose” measures, plus affordable housing. Construction has begun, and these will drive demand for furniture. How to seize this opportunity to drive more regional development has also become the strategic deployment target of enterprises.
The time lag between market deployment and gains is often the most chaotic period. Because the market tends to be lagging behind, the squid is behind, and the oriole is behind, you never know who will be the ultimate profiteering party. But what is certain is that for enterprises that have strong financial strength guarantees and seize the opportunity to make timely market adjustment strategies, the gains will be logical.
The downturn in the furniture industry is not due to lack of consumption. The overall market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is not so much because the economic environment has led to a decline in consumer power. It is better to say that countless negative news and “panic sentiment” have changed the mindset of consumers, which has affected business. Some analysts believe that China's spending power will continue and will continue to be strong. The key issue is that many supporting facilities in the industry have not kept up. The concept of consumers has not changed. The more in the "dark age", the more clearly it is to adjust according to the characteristics and positioning of its products, in terms of marketing strategies, and the structure of the initiative to touch consumption has undergone some changes.
November 04, 2024
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